{
  "_meta": {
    "description": "Synthetic trial-level surrogacy meta-regression data for MASLD/MASH. NOT real trial data.",
    "schema": "Each pair holds an ordered list of trials. Each trial = one RCT contributing one (surrogate effect, hard-outcome effect) point.",
    "effect_scale": "Effects are on a comparable standardized log-scale (e.g. log hazard/odds ratio difference, treatment vs control). x = surrogate treatment effect, y = hard-outcome treatment effect. Negative y = fewer hard outcomes (benefit). weight = inverse-variance-like precision (1/SE^2 of the y estimate).",
    "ste_units": "STE (surrogate threshold effect) is the minimum surrogate effect (x) for which the predicted hard-outcome effect's upper prediction bound crosses 0 (i.e. predicts benefit). Reported on the x-scale.",
    "disclaimer": "참고용·연구용 (research/reference only). Surrogate validity is uncertain. Do NOT use for regulatory/clinical decisions."
  },
  "pairs": [
    {
      "id": "PDFF/cirrhosis",
      "surrogate": "MRI-PDFF >=30% relative decrease",
      "hard_outcome": "cirrhosis progression",
      "r2_threshold": 0.7,
      "ste_achievable_range": [0.20, 0.80],
      "notes": "Designed to CROSS the R^2 reliability threshold (weak->strong) as trials accumulate, then HOLD. Early small/scattered phase-2 points give low R^2; later denser phase-3 points (with consistent benefit slope) pull trial-level R^2 above 0.7.",
      "trials": [
        {"trial": "PDFF-T1 (phase2a)", "x": 0.20, "y": -0.05, "w": 4.0,  "year": 2019},
        {"trial": "PDFF-T2 (phase2b)", "x": 0.30, "y": -0.20, "w": 3.0,  "year": 2020},
        {"trial": "PDFF-T3 (phase2b)", "x": 0.28, "y": -0.04, "w": 5.0,  "year": 2021},
        {"trial": "PDFF-T4 (phase3)",  "x": 0.40, "y": -0.19, "w": 7.0,  "year": 2022},
        {"trial": "PDFF-T5 (phase3)",  "x": 0.50, "y": -0.24, "w": 9.0,  "year": 2023},
        {"trial": "PDFF-T6 (phase3)",  "x": 0.58, "y": -0.30, "w": 8.0,  "year": 2024},
        {"trial": "PDFF-T7 (phase3)",  "x": 0.66, "y": -0.34, "w": 10.0, "year": 2025},
        {"trial": "PDFF-T8 (phase3)",  "x": 0.72, "y": -0.38, "w": 11.0, "year": 2026}
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "fibrosis/liver-death",
      "surrogate": "Fibrosis >=1-stage improvement",
      "hard_outcome": "liver-related death",
      "r2_threshold": 0.7,
      "ste_achievable_range": [0.15, 0.70],
      "notes": "Stronger, denser surrogate signal; stays reliable once enough trials accrue.",
      "trials": [
        {"trial": "FIB-A (phase2b)", "x": 0.35, "y": -0.18, "w": 6.0,  "year": 2020},
        {"trial": "FIB-B (phase3)",  "x": 0.50, "y": -0.27, "w": 9.0,  "year": 2021},
        {"trial": "FIB-C (phase3)",  "x": 0.20, "y": -0.10, "w": 8.0,  "year": 2022},
        {"trial": "FIB-D (phase3)",  "x": 0.62, "y": -0.34, "w": 11.0, "year": 2023},
        {"trial": "FIB-E (phase3)",  "x": 0.44, "y": -0.24, "w": 12.0, "year": 2024},
        {"trial": "FIB-F (phase3)",  "x": 0.57, "y": -0.31, "w": 13.0, "year": 2025}
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "FAST/HCC",
      "surrogate": "FAST score change",
      "hard_outcome": "hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)",
      "r2_threshold": 0.7,
      "ste_achievable_range": [0.25, 0.90],
      "notes": "Designed to STAY 'too sparse / low confidence' (only 3 trials, scattered) -- triggers sparsity warning.",
      "trials": [
        {"trial": "FAST-1 (phase2)", "x": 0.30, "y": -0.05, "w": 2.0, "year": 2023},
        {"trial": "FAST-2 (phase2)", "x": 0.55, "y": -0.28, "w": 3.0, "year": 2024},
        {"trial": "FAST-3 (phase2)", "x": 0.40, "y":  0.04, "w": 2.5, "year": 2025}
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "MASH-resolution/transplant",
      "surrogate": "MASH resolution (no worsening of fibrosis)",
      "hard_outcome": "liver transplant",
      "r2_threshold": 0.7,
      "ste_achievable_range": [0.20, 0.85],
      "notes": "Moderate; slope CI hovers near excluding 0 -- demonstrates slope-CI transition.",
      "trials": [
        {"trial": "RES-1 (phase2b)", "x": 0.28, "y": -0.08, "w": 4.0,  "year": 2021},
        {"trial": "RES-2 (phase3)",  "x": 0.66, "y": -0.22, "w": 7.0,  "year": 2022},
        {"trial": "RES-3 (phase3)",  "x": 0.45, "y": -0.30, "w": 8.0,  "year": 2023},
        {"trial": "RES-4 (phase3)",  "x": 0.52, "y": -0.18, "w": 9.0,  "year": 2024},
        {"trial": "RES-5 (phase3)",  "x": 0.70, "y": -0.33, "w": 10.0, "year": 2025}
      ]
    }
  ]
}